Ukraine peace talks appear closer to agreement after Trump and Zelenskyy announce real progress, but deep challenges remain. Read our detailed breakdown of what’s agreed, what’s unresolved, and what it means for all sides.
The long war between Russia and Ukraine may be entering a fragile but meaningful diplomatic phase. After high-level talks in Florida between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, both leaders publicly stated that “real progress” had been made toward a peace deal. While no agreement has been signed, the tone of the statements marked a notable shift from months of stalled negotiations and battlefield escalation.
According to reporting by Reuters, the discussions focused on a revised peace framework now condensed into a 20-point proposal, down from an earlier 28-point draft. Zelenskyy said nearly 90 percent of the framework had been agreed between Ukraine and the United States, with security guarantees described as almost complete. Trump echoed the optimism but added caution, noting that one or two major issues remained unresolved, especially those involving Russia directly
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/zelenskiy-meet-trump-florida-talks-ukraine-peace-plan-2025-12-28/
The talks reflect a reality that has slowly taken shape through years of fighting. Neither side has been able to secure a decisive victory on the battlefield. Ukraine has shown resilience and defensive strength, while Russia has sustained territorial control in parts of eastern and southern Ukraine. The economic cost, human toll, and strategic exhaustion are weighing heavily on all parties.
At the core of the discussions is the idea of ending large-scale hostilities while preventing future aggression. Ukraine’s primary demand remains firm security guarantees that would deter Russia from restarting the war once troops withdraw or a ceasefire takes hold. Kyiv has pushed for guarantees similar to NATO protections, though full NATO membership remains politically sensitive. The current US-backed proposal reportedly includes a long-term security framework lasting at least 15 years, with Ukraine seeking even longer commitments
https://apnews.com/article/b784a9af1803995bfb7152eceb5477f1
Security guarantees are not just symbolic for Ukraine. The country’s experience since 2014, including the annexation of Crimea and the failure of earlier diplomatic agreements, has created deep skepticism about paper promises without enforcement. Zelenskyy has repeatedly stressed that any peace without credible enforcement mechanisms would only delay another war.
Territory remains the most difficult issue. Russia continues to demand recognition or acceptance of its control over areas of eastern Ukraine, particularly parts of Donbas and Zaporizhzhia. Ukraine insists that borders cannot be redrawn by force and that any territorial changes must involve Ukrainian consent through legal and democratic processes. Reuters reports that Moscow has rejected proposals allowing referendums under international supervision, viewing them as a threat to its strategic gains
https://www.reuters.com/world/ukraine-unveils-20-point-peace-proposal-under-discussion-with-us-2025-12-24/
One idea discussed by negotiators involves converting disputed regions into demilitarized economic zones under international monitoring. While creative, the proposal faces resistance from both sides. Ukraine fears legitimizing occupation, while Russia opposes international oversight that limits its control. These disagreements explain why optimism remains cautious rather than celebratory.
The situation around the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant highlights the complexity of the talks. The plant, Europe’s largest, has been under Russian control since early in the war. Ukraine wants joint international operation or restoration of Ukrainian control, citing safety risks. Russia insists the facility is under its jurisdiction. The International Atomic Energy Agency has repeatedly warned that military activity near the plant poses serious nuclear risks
https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/focus/ukraine-conflict
Military realities on the ground continue to shape negotiations. Even as diplomats talk, fighting continues. Russia has maintained pressure along multiple front lines, while Ukraine has carried out strikes aimed at weakening Russian logistics. During the Florida talks, Moscow accused Ukraine of attempting a drone strike near President Vladimir Putin’s residence, an allegation Kyiv denied. The Kremlin said the incident hardened its negotiating stance
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-says-ukraine-tried-attack-putins-residence-so-moscows-negotiating-stance-2025-12-29/
This dual track of diplomacy and warfare is not unusual in prolonged conflicts, but it raises risks. Any major battlefield escalation could derail talks. At the same time, progress at the negotiating table could reduce incentives for further offensives.
For the United States, the peace push is closely tied to broader foreign policy goals. Trump has positioned himself as a dealmaker capable of ending wars that have drained American resources and attention. A negotiated settlement in Ukraine would be a major geopolitical achievement, but it also carries political risk if seen as conceding too much to Russia. European allies are watching closely, wary of any agreement that weakens collective security or sidelines their role.
European involvement remains essential. Ukraine’s survival over the past years depended heavily on European military aid, economic support, and sanctions on Russia. Any peace framework must align with European security interests to succeed. Discussions are expected to continue in Washington and European capitals, building on earlier coordination efforts
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_London_Summit_on_Ukraine
The short-term effects of a potential deal would be significant. Even a limited ceasefire could reduce civilian casualties, allow humanitarian access, and stabilize energy and food markets disrupted by the war. Ukraine’s economy, battered by infrastructure damage and displacement, would benefit from predictability and renewed investment. Russia, facing prolonged sanctions and capital flight, could gain economic relief if restrictions are eased gradually.
However, risks remain high. A rushed or poorly enforced agreement could freeze the conflict rather than resolve it, creating conditions similar to other unresolved post-Soviet conflicts. This would leave Ukraine vulnerable and regional tensions unresolved.
In the long term, the outcome of these talks will shape European security for decades. A settlement that reinforces international law and deters aggression could strengthen global norms. A deal perceived as rewarding force could embolden other territorial disputes worldwide.
Countries beyond Europe are paying close attention. In Asia, the Middle East, and Africa, governments see parallels to their own security concerns. The way borders and sovereignty are handled in Ukraine will influence future diplomacy elsewhere.
For Ukraine, reconstruction will be the defining challenge after any peace. Entire cities, energy systems, and transport networks will need rebuilding. International donors and financial institutions are already planning long-term reconstruction frameworks, but funding and coordination will depend on political stability
https://www.worldatnet.com/ukraine-reconstruction-plan
The war’s economic impact has extended far beyond Ukraine. Energy markets were disrupted, inflation surged, and global trade patterns shifted. A stable peace could ease pressure on oil, gas, and grain markets, benefiting both developed and developing economies
https://www.worldatnet.com/global-energy-crisis-russia-ukraine
Sanctions on Russia remain another unresolved question. Western governments are unlikely to lift restrictions without verifiable compliance with a peace agreement. Russia, meanwhile, wants sanctions relief as part of any deal. How this balance is struck will influence global trade and financial systems
https://www.worldatnet.com/russia-sanctions-global-trade
NATO’s future role also hangs in the balance. While Ukraine’s full membership remains uncertain, deeper security integration with Western institutions appears likely regardless of the deal’s final shape. This will continue to affect relations between NATO and Russia
https://www.worldatnet.com/nato-expansion-eastern-europe
In the end, the announcement of “real progress” reflects movement, not resolution. Diplomacy has reopened paths that once seemed closed, but the hardest decisions remain ahead. Peace will depend not just on words and frameworks, but on trust, enforcement, and political will from all sides.
Whether this moment becomes a turning point or another missed opportunity will be decided in the months ahead. What is clear is that the world has reached a stage where continued war carries costs too high to ignore, and imperfect peace may be the only realistic path forward
https://www.worldatnet.com/ukraine-russia-war-timeline
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