From soaring prices to political unrest, Iran’s 2025–26 protests reflect domestic and international pressures. Read our full analysis.
Iran is experiencing one of its most widespread protest waves in years. Beginning in late December 2025, the demonstrations started as a reaction to soaring prices for basic goods, especially bread, and quickly spread across Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, Mashhad, and many smaller towns. What began as an economic protest has now evolved into a broader movement that reflects political frustration and challenges to the government’s legitimacy.
The collapse of the Iranian rial is at the center of the unrest. By late December 2025, the rial had fallen to roughly 1.39 million rials per U.S. dollar, with inflation surpassing 40 percent. Families struggle to afford basic necessities, while shopkeepers in the Grand Bazaar closed their stores and joined marches to demand relief. Workers, students, taxi drivers, and families have all taken part in these demonstrations, which have sometimes turned confrontational with security forces. At least sixteen deaths and hundreds of arrests have been reported, illustrating the tense standoff between protesters and the government. (Reuters)
Economic issues are only part of the story. Decades of internal mismanagement, systemic corruption, and a reliance on oil exports have left Iran vulnerable to external shocks. Sanctions imposed after the U.S. withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear deal and renewed snapback sanctions in 2025 have further restricted trade and financial flows. Analysts note that while sanctions exacerbate hardship, structural domestic issues are equally responsible for economic decline. (Wikipedia)
Regional conflicts have also amplified internal frustrations. In mid-2025, Iran clashed with Israel and the United States in a brief but intense military engagement, which drained resources and heightened public frustration over government priorities. Citizens increasingly question why foreign ambitions are pursued while their basic needs go unmet.
Many observers ask whether these protests indicate a push for regime change. While some demonstrators have broadened their demands to include political reforms or direct criticism of leadership, the movement began as a domestic response to economic hardship. Evidence shows that most participants act independently of foreign direction, emphasizing homegrown grievances rather than a coordinated external agenda. (Middle East Eye)
Tehran’s government frames the protests differently. Officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, claim foreign powers, particularly the United States, Israel, and Western media, are amplifying unrest. While external pressures shape perceptions, the protests themselves are largely driven by domestic concerns. (Euronews)
U.S. officials have publicly supported Iranian citizens’ right to peaceful protest, with former President Donald Trump warning Tehran against using violence and other diplomats urging restraint. These statements highlight global attention but also feed the Iranian government’s narrative of external interference. (Iran International)
Israel’s position is primarily focused on regional security. Officials express concern about Iran’s nuclear program and military activities in the region. Internal analyses suggest that unrest in Iran could weaken Tehran’s political stability, potentially affecting Israel’s strategic calculations. Officially, Israel denies directing protests but maintains heightened military readiness to respond to potential escalations. (Times of Israel)
For ordinary Iranians, the movement is largely about survival. Many citizens welcome international awareness but reject foreign interference, mindful of historical events like the 1953 CIA-backed coup against Prime Minister Mossadegh. Younger Iranians, connected through social media and technology, expect better economic opportunities, education, and personal freedoms, fueling activism when these expectations go unmet.
The protests follow patterns seen in 2019 and 2022–23, when economic or social grievances escalated into nationwide demonstrations. Each wave reflects deep structural issues: inflation, unemployment, social restrictions, and declining trust in institutions. (Wikipedia)
The government’s next steps will be critical. While Iran has powerful security forces capable of suppressing unrest and limiting internet access to disrupt organization, sustained pressure could erode legitimacy. External factors, including sanctions and regional tensions with Israel, complicate responses and may intensify internal frustration.
Ultimately, the 2025–26 protests are primarily a domestic phenomenon, rooted in economic and social grievances, even as they unfold in a complex geopolitical environment. Public statements by the United States and Israel influence perceptions, but the protests’ momentum and evolution reflect the lived realities of Iranian citizens. How Tehran navigates economic relief, political accountability, and international pressure will determine the future trajectory of this movement.
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