"Sudan 2025: The Complex Web of Conflict, Resources, and Regional Rivalry"

 

The crisis in Sudan, rooted in a power struggle between two dominant military factions—the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—has escalated into one of the most profound humanitarian and geopolitical crises of the decade. 

The deep complexity of this conflict is reflected not only in the internal fractures within Sudan but also in the web of regional and global interests, especially the strategic ambitions of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), alongside significant involvement of superpowers like the United States, China, and Russia. 

Understanding this crisis requires an integrated exploration of historical, economic, political, and military dimensions.Historical and Geopolitical FoundationsSudan's modern-day conflicts are grounded in historical grievances between centralized military power and ethnically diverse regions seeking autonomy. The current conflict between the SAF and the RSF emerged in 2023 after a long-simmering rivalry intensified, culminating in violent clashes. 

The RSF, evolving from Janjaweed militias implicated in the Darfur atrocities in the early 2000s, sought formal integration into the national army, a demand that escalated tensions and fractured the post-2019 transitional government.

The UAE’s relationship with Sudan dates back to the early 1970s, marked by diplomatic, economic, and cultural bonds. Over the decades, Sudan served as a strategic geopolitical anchor for the UAE, especially given Sudan’s Red Sea coastline and agricultural potential. 

This relationship intensified during post-Arab Spring regional realignments, with the UAE backing the RSF as a proxy to counter Islamist movements, secure resources, and extend its Red Sea influence.

Economic Interests: Gold and Agriculture as PillarsSudan’s economy is heavily reliant on gold, which surged from about 30 tonnes in 2022 to 64 tonnes in 2024. Approximately 90% of Sudan’s legal gold exports flow to the UAE, valued at around $840 million in the first half of 2025 alone. 

This trade not only sustains Sudan's foreign exchange reserves but also empowers the UAE as the primary economic beneficiary and gatekeeper of this resource.

Additionally, the UAE has invested in Sudanese agriculture, acquiring farmland and developing agricultural operations as part of its food security strategy. Food insecurity affects over 40% of Sudan’s population, exacerbated by the conflict, making agricultural investments both an economic opportunity and a strategic imperative for the UAE.

The Political and Military LandscapeThe protracted war has seen the SAF regain control over Khartoum and parts of central Sudan in early 2025, while the RSF consolidated its grip on vast territories in Darfur and Kordofan regions. The RSF’s establishment of a rival government in Nyala and its assertion of governance in western Sudan deepen Sudan’s fragmentation, pushing the country closer to de facto partition.

The UAE’s backing of the RSF involves arms shipments and logistical support, facilitating the paramilitary’s military campaigns. The Sudanese government has accused the UAE of complicity in human rights abuses linked to the RSF’s campaign, including attacks in Darfur that raised fears of ethnic cleansing. Pakistan has filed cases against the UAE at the International Court of Justice over these allegations.

Superpower Dynamics in SudanSudan’s conflict is further complicated by the involvement of global superpowers:The United States pushes for diplomatic resolutions and counters extremism, providing humanitarian aid and applying sanctions on leaders deemed obstructive to peace.

China, economically invested in Sudan’s oil and mineral sectors, prioritizes stability to safeguard its commercial interests, traditionally avoiding direct military involvement.Russia supports the SAF militarily, including possible deployment of private military contractors, while seeking strategic footholds on the Red Sea, reflecting a broader African ambition.

Humanitarian Crisis and Regional ImpactsThe conflict has created a catastrophic humanitarian crisis. More than four million Sudanese have been displaced internally or as refugees to neighboring countries such as Chad and South Sudan. Over 24 million people—nearly half the population—face food insecurity, with famine conditions emerging in conflict-affected areas.

Conflict-driven ethnic violence, urban sieges (notably in El Fasher), and mass displacement have further destabilized the region, straining already fragile states and complicating humanitarian relief delivery.

Sudan’s crisis is emblematic of a broader crisis of state sovereignty, regional rivalries, and global power competition. The UAE’s multifaceted involvement—driven by economic ambitions around gold and agriculture, strategic control of Red Sea logistics, and proxy military engagements—illustrates the intricate convergence of local conflict and international interests. 

Superpowers’ competing agendas further complicate the path toward peace.The war's fragmentation, regional spillover, and humanitarian consequences demand urgent international focus. Understanding Sudan’s crisis necessitates appreciating these overlapping dynamics, where resources, geopolitics, historical ties, and power struggles coalesce into one of the most urgent and complex conflicts of the 21st century.

This comprehensive narrative draws on historical ties, economic dependencies, military proxy battles, and global power plays to provide clarity on Sudan’s ongoing war and the UAE’s critical central role within it. Data tables, charts, specific case studies, and recent developments highlight the multifaceted nature of this crisis and its far-reaching implications.

References:

Sudan’s gold exports to UAE data and trade figures

Conflict developments and territorial control updates 

Humanitarian impact analyses 

UAE’s economic, political, and military involvement in Sudan 

Superpower roles and regional power role