WorldAtNet · Global Affairs · Conflict · Geopolitics · Updated: May 22, 2026
America–Israel–Iran:
Operation Epic Fury,
The Hormuz Crisis &
The Fragile Search for Peace
From the shock strikes of February 28 that killed a Supreme Leader, to a shattered ceasefire, a naval blockade, and talks on a knife's edge — here is the complete, definitive account of the most consequential Middle East conflict in a generation.
The Middle East has known no shortage of crises in recent decades. But what began at 1:15 in the morning on February 28, 2026 was different in scale, speed, and consequence from anything the region had seen since at least the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Within hours, Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei — who had ruled the Islamic Republic for 34 years — was dead. Within days, the Strait of Hormuz, through which approximately 20% of the world's petroleum flows, was effectively closed. Within weeks, seven countries were either under fire or housing the fires of a conflict that refused to stay within borders. And within a month, the global oil market had recorded what the International Energy Agency called the largest oil supply disruption in its history.
Today, nearly three months after the opening shots of Operation Epic Fury, a ceasefire technically holds — but only barely. Negotiations are ongoing. A US naval blockade is strangling Iranian ports. Iran continues to control the narrows of the Strait of Hormuz. And fresh exchanges of fire in the strait have kept the world on edge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on May 21 that he sees "good signs" a deal can be reached, but simultaneously warned it would be "unfeasible" if Iran pushes ahead with plans to toll ships transiting the waterway. Iran's position is equally firm: it will not negotiate while blockaded. The two sides are separated by a chasm — but both, crucially, appear to want to avoid another all-out war.
To understand where things stand today, it is essential to trace how they arrived here — from the years of nuclear brinksmanship and failed diplomacy, through the shock of February 28, to the diplomatic machinery now grinding slowly in Islamabad, Muscat, and back-channels that neither Washington nor Tehran is willing to fully acknowledge.
Decades of Hostility: The Road to February 28
The 2026 conflict did not arrive without warning. Tensions between the United States and Iran stretch back to the 1979 Islamic Revolution and the hostage crisis that followed, setting a tone of mutual hostility and structural distrust that survived every administration, every negotiation, and every near-miss of the past 47 years. But the immediate trigger for the February 28 strikes was the accelerating status of Iran's nuclear programme — and the collapse of talks that might have constrained it.
By mid-2025, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) had documented that Iran had enriched uranium to 60% purity and possessed approximately 408.6 kg of this material — enough, experts estimated, for four to five nuclear warheads if further enriched to weapons-grade. In June 2025, the IAEA formally declared Iran in material breach of its Non-Proliferation Treaty obligations. After Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities that month, IAEA inspectors could no longer conduct in-field verification of enrichment levels or stockpile locations. Iran's actual nuclear status by early 2026 was, in the words of one US intelligence assessment, "unknown."
Against this backdrop, the United States and Iran entered three rounds of indirect negotiations in February 2026, mediated by Oman. The talks, held in Muscat, covered whether Iran's ballistic missile programme and its network of regional proxy forces would be included in any agreement, and whether Tehran would be permitted to continue enriching uranium at all. Progress appeared real: the Omani foreign minister described "significant" momentum, with Iran signalling willingness to make concessions. But according to a UK House of Commons Library briefing, President Trump declared himself "not thrilled" with the direction of the talks — and the negotiations collapsed without an agreement in late February. Three days later, the bombs fell.
Operation Epic Fury: The Opening Salvo That Changed Everything
The morning of Saturday, February 28, 2026 began like any other in Tehran — until it did not. Encyclopaedia Britannica's contemporaneous account records that US and Israeli forces began conducting joint strikes on Iran at mid-morning local time, with the US code-naming their component Operation Epic Fury and Israel calling theirs Operation Roaring Lion (also referenced as "Lion's Roar" in Israeli communications). In the first 12 hours alone, nearly 900 strikes were conducted — a tempo of military action with few precedents in the history of modern warfare.
The targets were military infrastructure, the nuclear programme, and the leadership of the Islamic Republic itself. Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was assassinated in the opening hours — the most significant targeted killing of a head of state since the elimination of Osama bin Laden in 2011, and arguably more consequential given Khamenei's 34-year grip on the entire structure of the Iranian state. Explosions were reported across Tehran and in Tabriz, Qom, Karaj, Khorramabad, Kermanshah, and Ilam. The southern port city of Bushehr was also attacked.
The Congressional Research Service (CRS) report of March 26 confirmed that the three main nuclear enrichment sites — Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan — sustained what the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff described as "extremely severe damage." The conventional Iranian Navy was largely destroyed. The total assets deployed by the US included B-2 stealth bombers, B-52s, F-22 and F-35 stealth fighters, nuclear-powered aircraft carriers, guided-missile destroyers, and the full range of America's most advanced conventional military hardware — a deployment that, per a Pentagon fact sheet, struck over 5,000 targets in the first ten days and destroyed or damaged 50 Iranian naval vessels.
- ~900 strikesin the first 12 hours alone (Britannica / US CENTCOM)
- 5,000+ targetsstruck in the first 10 days (Pentagon Fact Sheet)
- 50 Iranian naval vesselsdamaged or destroyed (Pentagon)
- Nuclear sites Natanz, Fordow & Isfahan suffer"extremely severe damage"(CJCS)
- Operation formally concluded:May 5, 2026(Secretary Rubio, CNN)
- Total US cost: approximately$25 billion, depleting munitions stockpiles assessed to take 3–5 years to rebuild
- US service members killed:15(CENTCOM as of May 2026)
Operation True Promise IV: Iran Strikes Back Across Seven Nations
Iran's response was immediate, wide-ranging, and — by the standards of previous Iranian retaliation — unprecedented in geographic scope. Designated Operation True Promise IV, the Iranian counter-strike extended the war's footprint to seven countries within 48 hours: Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Iraq. The pre-war Iranian ballistic missile arsenal had been estimated by Israeli intelligence at approximately 2,500 missiles, and Iran's forces proceeded to deploy them in sustained waves.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) documented that 95 Iranian strike waves were recorded under Operation True Promise IV by early April. The Fifth Fleet Headquarters in Bahrain was damaged. Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, Al Dhafra in the UAE, and Ain al-Asad in Iraq were all struck. One of the most militarily consequential single actions of the conflict was the destruction of an AN/TPY-2 THAAD radar at Muwaffaq Salti Air Base in Jordan — one of only nine such radars in the entire US global inventory, valued at $300 million. At least 64 US service members sustained concussive injuries at a single base in Iraq.
Iran simultaneously activated its most powerful regional lever: on March 1, it announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to ships of "hostile states" — a declaration that sent shockwaves through global commodity markets. Brent crude oil surged above $100 a barrel as the reality of the disruption became clear. Iran also activated Hezbollah in Lebanon, launching large-scale rocket and drone attacks against Israel. The Israeli Defense Forces responded with airstrikes across Lebanon, opening a second front that would produce its own humanitarian catastrophe.
Iran's counter-strikes on Arab Gulf states — particularly Saudi Arabia and the UAE, which had sought to deepen relations with Tehran in recent years — proved strategically costly for Tehran's regional standing. Both Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, initially committed only to intercepting Iranian salvos while denying offensive use of their territory, issued statements signalling willingness to respond more forcefully. Saudi Arabia declared it "will take all necessary measures to defend its security and protect its territory." Iran had struck not just its declared adversaries but nations it had been carefully courting through the Abraham Accords framework — a diplomatic miscalculation that has deepened its regional isolation.
The World's Most Critical Chokepoint — And Its Closure
The Strait of Hormuz is, without exaggeration, the jugular vein of the global energy system. Some 20% of all global petroleum and 20% of all liquefied natural gas transits this narrow channel annually. Before the conflict, approximately 3,000 vessels used the strait each month. According to the UK House of Commons Library's dedicated briefing on the Hormuz crisis, that number has now fallen to approximately 5% of pre-conflict levels — with almost no commercial shipping using the route despite the ceasefire, as hundreds of tankers and bulk carriers remain anchored and stranded in the region.
The narrowest part of the strait passes through Iranian and Omani territorial waters — a geographic reality that gives Tehran extraordinary leverage. Iran's closure announcement came with a threat to fire on non-compliant vessels, and while the conditional ceasefire from April 8 briefly allowed some initial ship movements to resume, the combination of the US naval blockade imposed on April 13 and ongoing Iranian controls has kept the waterway effectively dysfunctional for global commerce. Ship-tracking service MarineTraffic recorded the first tentative transits on April 8 when the ceasefire took hold, but the volumes remain a fraction of normal traffic.
The economic consequences have been severe and global. The IEA's description of this as the largest oil supply disruption in the history of the global oil market is not hyperbole. Several Arab Gulf states were forced to cut or suspend oil production due to Irlanian attacks on their energy infrastructure — including a strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG export facility that threatened to reduce global LNG capacity. Oil prices above $100 a barrel have fed directly into fuel price spikes across Asia and Africa, where fuel import dependency is highest. UN estimates cited by ECOSOC suggest global fuel prices are now more than double the 2025 average, with fertiliser prices set to remain 15–20% above normal levels through mid-2026.
Key Timeline: Feb 28 to May 22, 2026
The Human Toll: Thousands Dead, Millions Displaced
Behind the geopolitical manoeuvring and military scorecards lies a human catastrophe that grows more acute with each passing week. Verified casualty data aggregated from CENTCOM, the IDF, Iran's Foundation of Martyrs, Lebanon's Health Ministry, and independent monitoring groups shows a total confirmed death toll of between 6,285 and 8,817 people across all nations — with figures continuing to be revised upward as access to damaged areas improves.
In Iran, the official Foundation of Martyrs figure stands at 3,468 confirmed killed, though the US and Israel have claimed far higher military casualties, with estimates exceeding 6,000. The Human Rights Activists in Iran (HRANA) organisation has independently documented 3,636 deaths within the country — noting that military casualties are "believed to be significantly higher" due to state restrictions on information. The Iranian Red Crescent Society reported that more than 82,000 civilian structures have been damaged or destroyed by US-Israeli strikes. The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) estimated that up to 3.2 million Iranians have been temporarily displaced within the country.
Lebanon's suffering has been immense. The Lebanese Health Ministry reports more than 2,586 killed and 8,020 wounded since hostilities escalated in early March — with over 1.6 million people displaced from their homes, predominantly from the south where Israeli operations have been most concentrated. The World Health Organization (WHO) documents 169 attacks on healthcare workers and facilities in Lebanon since March 2, with 116 medical workers among those killed. A US-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon was signed in mid-April, but exchanges between Israel and Hezbollah have continued to flare.
- Iran:3,468–6,000+ killed (Foundation of Martyrs / HRANA / US estimates); 15,000–26,500 wounded
- Lebanon:2,586+ killed; 8,020+ wounded;1.6 million displaced
- United States:15 service members killed; 538 wounded (CENTCOM)
- Israel:47 killed; 8,590 wounded
- Iraq:117+ killed; 361 wounded
- UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Oman:Combined 32 killed, 425+ wounded
- France:3 soldiers killed (operating in region)
The humanitarian situation inside Iran has been compounded by widespread protests in early 2026. Fuelled by the weakened economy — itself a product of years of sanctions now intensified by the naval blockade — as well as crumbling infrastructure and the regime's handling of the conflict, significant demonstrations broke out in major Iranian cities. The government put them down with extensive use of force, with ongoing arrests continuing throughout the ceasefire period. The UK House of Commons Library notes these protests as evidence of the regime's "weakened legitimacy within the country" — a factor that both the US and Israel have explicitly cited as part of their stated objective of "regime change."
The Ceasefire, the Blockade, and the Stalled Road to Peace
On April 8, Pakistan — one of the few nations with channels open to both Washington and Tehran — brokered the conditional two-week ceasefire that halted the active phase of Operation Epic Fury. The deal was straightforward in concept: the US would pause military action in exchange for Iran allowing shipping to move through the Strait of Hormuz while negotiations proceeded. Trump announced it as "a big day for World Peace." Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi confirmed Tehran's conditional acceptance. For a brief period, the first vessels transited the strait and Brent crude dropped nearly 16% in a single session.
But the Islamabad Talks of April 11–12 — the formal negotiation that was meant to convert the ceasefire into a permanent settlement — failed. The gaps were not marginal. According to the House of Commons Library's comprehensive briefing on the negotiations, the issues under discussion include: freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz; Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programme; reconstruction funding and sanctions relief; and a long-term peace agreement. On every one of these axes, the positions remain far apart.
When talks failed, the United States imposed a naval blockade of Iran on April 13. US forces have since intercepted 33 vessels attempting to reach Iranian ports, seized three ships outright, and the US claims the blockade is costing Iran $500 million daily — figures Iran disputes. In retaliation, Tehran seized two foreign cargo ships. Iran's Foreign Ministry has called the blockade "completely contrary to international law" and insists it must end before any lasting agreement is possible. Iran's Ambassador to the UN in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, has demanded that "the international community must not remain silent."
The most recent flashpoint in the negotiations is Iran's proposal — reportedly explored in discussions with Oman — for a tolling system that would give Tehran permanent control over shipping revenues through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump has rejected this outright, telling reporters: "We want it open. We want it free. We don't want tolls. It's international. It's an international waterway." Secretary Rubio echoed this in even blunter terms on May 21: "No one in the world is in favor of a tolling system." Tehran, for its part, has presented this proposal as a reasonable sovereign right over waters partially within its territorial boundaries. This impasse over the Hormuz question is currently the most visible obstacle to a deal.
Complicating the picture further, Trump has simultaneously described the ceasefire as "on life support" and "unbelievably weak" after fresh exchanges of fire in the strait in mid-May — while also saying he was expecting a formal letter from Iran "tonight" on May 8 regarding peace terms. The mixed signals from Washington — alternating between threats of "one big glow coming out of Iran" and assurances that a deal is imminent — have left both allies and adversaries struggling to calibrate the US position.
Beyond the Middle East: The Conflict's Global Economic Shockwave
No war in the modern globalised economy stays within its geographic borders. The 2026 Iran conflict has sent shockwaves through energy markets, supply chains, and financial systems across every continent. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz — even temporarily — has had cascading effects on fuel prices, food costs, and manufacturing inputs worldwide. The IEA's description of the oil market disruption as historically unprecedented is reflected in the data: Brent crude breached $100 per barrel within days of the conflict's outbreak, and despite temporary relief when the ceasefire took hold, prices remain extremely elevated.
A Visual Capitalist analysis of gasoline prices across 128 countries between late February and mid-April 2026 shows that several nations have seen fuel costs more than double in the weeks following the outbreak of conflict. Southeast Asia — heavily dependent on Persian Gulf imports — has been among the hardest hit, as have energy-import-dependent African nations including Zimbabwe, Tanzania, and Malawi, where fuel price increases exceeding 30% have directly worsened food security and household living standards. These fuel cost increases are feeding directly into fertiliser prices, which the UN estimates will remain 15–20% elevated through the first half of 2026, pushing food prices higher globally.
The Observer Research Foundation notes that global merchandise trade is now expected to slow from 4.7% growth in 2025 to just 1.5–2.5% in 2026 — a deceleration that will be felt most acutely in developing economies already struggling with debt burdens, weakening currencies, and rising borrowing costs as investors pull back from higher-risk markets. The UN's ECOSOC has warned that more than 32 million additional people are at risk of being pushed into poverty by the combined shock of the energy price surge, higher food costs, and slowing growth.
What Comes Next: The Three Possible Paths
Three broad scenarios now dominate the strategic analysis of where this conflict goes from here, and the window for the most optimistic outcome is narrow.
Path 1: A Negotiated Settlement
The most hopeful scenario — and still the one that both sides' public statements nominally aim toward — is a comprehensive agreement covering the Strait of Hormuz's permanent status, Iran's nuclear programme, sanctions relief, and some form of reconstruction framework. Secretary Rubio's "good signs" statement of May 21 suggests that at the working level, there remains a diplomatic track alive. Pakistan continues to serve as an active mediator, and Oman has been involved in back-channel communication. For a deal to happen, the US would need to drop or substantially modify the naval blockade, and Iran would need to abandon the Hormuz tolling plan and accept verifiable constraints on its nuclear and missile programmes. Neither concession is currently on the table in explicit form. But wars do end — and both economies have powerful incentives to find a way out.
Path 2: A Frozen Conflict
The more likely near-term outcome, most analysts suggest, is a protracted frozen conflict — where the ceasefire holds in name, the blockade and Hormuz restrictions continue in practice, and neither side makes the concessions needed for a final settlement. This scenario has the most historical precedent: it resembles the post-2003 Iraq situation or the ongoing Korean peninsula dynamics. Under this scenario, global oil prices remain structurally elevated, Iran's economy slowly deteriorates under the combined pressure of sanctions and the blockade, and the humanitarian situations in Iran and Lebanon worsen. The risk is that a single miscalculation in the Strait of Hormuz triggers a return to active fighting.
Path 3: Resumption of Hostilities
The scenario that most alarms international observers — and that the UN Secretary-General António Guterres was warning against as early as March — is a return to large-scale conflict. The ceasefire has already been described by Trump as "on life support," and fresh exchanges of fire in the strait have demonstrated how quickly the situation can escalate. If Iran proceeds with any residual nuclear weaponisation programme, or if the talks collapse completely, the possibility of a second wave of US-Israeli strikes on remaining Iranian infrastructure cannot be dismissed. The military cost would be enormous — the US has already spent $25 billion and depleted munition stockpiles that will take years to rebuild — but political calculations in Washington and Tel Aviv do not always follow strategic logic.
A Conflict That Reshaped the Middle East — And the World
In just under three months, the America–Israel–Iran conflict of 2026 has achieved what decades of diplomacy, sanctions, and periodic military strikes could not: it has fundamentally altered the strategic landscape of the Middle East and the global energy order simultaneously. Iran's military infrastructure has been severely degraded, its nuclear programme set back by an unknown but substantial degree, its Supreme Leader assassinated, and its economy strangled by a naval blockade. Israel has achieved its declared objective of eliminating the most immediate Iranian military threat — though at the cost of a renewed Lebanon crisis. The United States has demonstrated its willingness to use overwhelming conventional force in pursuit of non-proliferation goals.
But the conflict has also demonstrated the limits of military power. Iran has not surrendered. Its new leadership, under Khamenei's designated successor, continues to resist what it characterises as "unconditional surrender" terms. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed, costing the global economy hundreds of millions of dollars daily. The humanitarian toll — more than 6,000 dead, 3.2 million displaced in Iran alone, 1.6 million in Lebanon — continues to mount. And the prospect of Iran's nuclear programme being not destroyed but driven underground and dispersed, beyond the reach of IAEA inspectors, haunts the arms control community.
Secretary Rubio's careful optimism of May 21 — "good signs" of a deal, but no deal yet — accurately captures where the world stands. The war's offensive phase may be over. The war's consequences — economic, humanitarian, geopolitical — are very much ongoing. Whether the diplomats can now succeed where the generals have left off will determine not just the fate of the Middle East, but the stability of the global economy for years to come.
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